The eminent Roman historian Publius Cornelius Tacitus in a biography of his illustrious father-in-law Gnaeus Julius Agrippa famously wrote “Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium, atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.” Which translates in the Loeb Classical Library edition as “To plunder, butcher, steal, these things they misname empire: they make a desolation and they call it peace.” Lord Byron, in his poem the Bride of Abydos, rendered the Tacitus Latin as “Mark where his carnage and his conquests cease! He makes a solitude, and calls it — peace.” Per Tacitus’ no doubt second hand account , the words were originally spoken by the Caledonian chieftain Calgacus who was addressing his assembled warriors concerning Rome’s insatiable appetite for conquest and plunder. The chieftain’s sentiment can be contrasted to pax in terra “peace on earth” which was sometimes inscribed on Roman medals (phalera) awarded to soldiers returning from the imperial wars.
Tacitus’ description of the First Century Roman Empire using a metaphor should strike a chord for modern American observers of the carnage taking place in the Middle East. The only question would be whether the description better fits Israel or the United States. Or, perhaps, does it apply to both since the two nations have lately in practice been governed out of Tel Aviv? Israel is an ethno-religious state that aspires to regional dominance to create what is referred to as Eretz Israel, Greater Israel, a nation state based on the apartheid view that only Jews, as being chosen by God, can rule and have full rights in the area that they control. The modern vision of what that would include as imagined by extremist advocates of the Jewish state’s expansion would stretch from the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates River in Iraq, together with South Lebanon to the Litani River. Nations like Jordan and Syria would be absorbed in the process an there would be no Palestinians.
Some observers are supporting the theory that Donald Trump, who subordinated actual US interests to those of Israel during his first term in office, will now play hard ball with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if only to maintain his self-proclaimed reputation as a champion of world peace, solving international conflicts through making “deals” rather than by fighting. Brokering a deal on Israel-Palestine would be an achievement that has proven to be beyond the reach of every previous administration and it would surely earn him the Nobel Peace Prize. His initial position in 2016 was precisely that, to make a deal that would be acceptable to both sides, until the Israel Lobby punished him for it and forced him to back down.
Indeed, Trump is now pulling one of his characteristic one step forward two steps back with his proposal that Gaza should be made free of Gazans who should be conveniently moved to Jordan and Egypt “to clean out the whole thing.” That would be something like a perfect solution for Benjamin Netanyahu but the proposal has not been well received in either Amman or Cairo. Nevertheless, Trump certainly deserves a great deal of credit for what he has achieved. His supporters point to the recently initiated ceasefire with Gaza which came about due to Trump’s pressure on Netanyahu delivered in an impromptu visit by special emissary Steve Witkoff, succeeding in a objective that the clueless and genocide enabling Biden administration failed at for 15 months. While it is true that Witkoff induced a reluctant Netanyahu to accept a temporary ceasefire, possible off the table concessions to Israel that made the deal work have not been revealed. Israel’s special seat at the American Foreign Policy table remains in place evidently, with a recent Trump initiative to suspend all foreign aid for ninety days included Ukraine but exempted Israel. Indeed, the working level of Trump’s administration is measurably more rabidly pro-Zionist than were their counterparts under Joe Biden. The new Ambassador to Israel Ziocon Mike Huckabee denies that Palestinians even exist and sounds a lot like a settler leader which makes one wonder whether he will defend American interests at all. If push comes to shove the new men and women who have taken over will not only support the annexation of some or all of West Bank but also do nothing to stop or mitigate the restarting of the Gaza genocide.
At the same time, there are several incentives for Trump to want to avoid returning to the Biden-era genocide. Surrounding himself with pro-Israel fanatics won’t help, but two other factors may still play into the decision making, most notably US public opinion, which continues to shift toward Palestine and away from Israel and the possibility that Trump will get into a direct personal conflict with Netanyahu, who has been able to publicly ignore and even humiliate the White House for the last four years without any consequences. Given the respective egos, any disagreement between the two could easily escalate into a real rupture. Trump is not a career politician with decades of subservience to powerful lobbies and he also can’t run again for office. Global and national opinion is rapidly shifting against Israel, including among his MAGA base, with figures like Tucker Carlson and Candice Owens calling out Israel firsters as promoting policies that are antithetical to their values. If Israel continues its assault on all Palestine and the whole region with massive US financial and military support, it could hurt Trump’s popularity and legacy. Of course, Mossad provided videos or photos of him with a minor on Epstein Island or similar, if they exist, might be enough to keep him in line but that could well be the only thing that would constitute an off switch.
Against all of that, Netanyahu has told his supporters and political allies that the United States will support Israel if it opts to suspend the unpopular ceasefire and resume the onslaught due to “Hamas violations,” which will almost certainly be contrived or even cunningly false flagged. In fact, Netanyahu is already doing just that to inhibit the return of the north Gazans to their ruined homes. Hamas will be careful to avoid falling further into Bibi’s trap, but Israel’s propaganda mill is far more effective at reaching a global audience than is that of the Palestinians and the narrative will surely be muddied. Israel is also covering all based by maintaining its occupation of southern Lebanon, which was supposed to end on Sunday January 26th, in a ceasefire and truce that was set up and guaranteed by Washington, without a peep coming out of the Trump administration even though the Israeli Army has been shooting and killing Lebanese trying to return to their homes. Israel has also expanded its occupation of the Golan and Mount Hermon areas in neighboring Syria. However most significantly, Netanyahu has stepped-up pressure on Palestinian areas in the West Bank as a preparation for full annexation within the next year. Israeli snipers and army units have been killing Palestinians in Jenin and surrounding districts and have also stormed the center of the town using tanks and airstrikes, essentially shifting the slaughter in Gaza to a massacre on the West Bank while the ceasefire holds.
Again, there has not been one harsh word out of Washington over the Jenin killings and the White House has even lifted the sanctions on extremist settler groups on the West Bank that have made Palestinian lives so miserable as to encourage them to emigrate. Jews-only Israeli roads cris-cross the West Bank with armed soldiers and police manning check points and I have recently learned that Palestinians are not even allowed to collect rainwater to water their crops! The water belongs to Israel! And beyond that, the new administration has apparently rewarded Netanyahu by lifting a ban on the supplying of certain categories of weapons that the Biden administration had blocked, including 1800 of the devastating MK-84 2,000 pound bombs that have so effectively destroyed Gaza.
Iran, which is the ultimate target of Israel and possibly of the United States as well judging from “discussions” that have apparently taken place, is very much aware of what is going on and is making preparations for war by concealing and going deep underground with its vital military and energy related sites. Interestingly, however, the principal claim being made by both Israel and US government hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina that Tehran might develop a nuclear weapon within a week if it chooses to do so has been denied by the outgoing CIA Director William Burns, who claims that the Iranians have no nukes and have no capability to quickly produce them, nor do they have any desire to acquire a nuclear weapon.
The upside to the ceasefire in Gaza is that some Palestinians apart from those who are being blocked have been able to return to their homes, 92% of which have been destroyed or badly damaged, to dig up the bodies of the families and neighbors. Food trucks, under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, are indeed beginning to arrive in much larger numbers for the starving Gazan population that remains. But if Israel renews its assault on Gaza it would be able to stop the humanitarian aid literally overnight, as it has done in the past.
So what could happen? If Israel continues to go carry out its plans of ethnic cleansing, genocide, territorial expansion and foreign aggression with unconditional US support, this may motivate other countries and some international institutions to continue turning against Israel, particularly as US power and influence are in rapid decline due to the rise of China and BRICS. All these trends are already underway: the questions is how fast they will develop into policies. But a renewed Israeli attack on an already devastated Gaza fueled by billions of US dollars could result in more and wider popular protest in the US in spite of government efforts to suppress pro-Palestinian protesters. It will also mean that the new phase of conflict will become Trump’s war, not Biden’s or Harris’ meaning that Democrats who stayed silent so as not to hurt the new administration will suddenly have a powerful incentive to criticize it. Alternatively, Trump is in a unique position to have “Nixon-goes-to-China moment,” which would have tremendous upsides for him politically and personally. Of course, Israel and its supporters would rise up in anger (they’ve killed people for less), but changing US and global public opinion could make the difference this time around if there is anyone in the White House who is listening.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org.