In 1982, I was with Israel’s army when it invaded southern Lebanon. We moved from menacing village to village ready for an attack by Hezbollah fighters.

Israel’s objective was to seize the southern portion of Lebanon, notably the Litani River, the region’s major source of potable water. The historic Port of Tyre - old when Rome was young - was another key target. It had been largely seized by Maronite fascist militias allied and supplied by Israel.

Israel claimed it was battling “terrorism”. In fact, Israel’s ultimate objective was - as always - more land for the Jewish state. When Israel was created in 1948, there was much speculation about whether the new Jewish state would go on to annex all of southern Lebanon.

That did not happen after the US put its foot down. Those were the days before Israel dominated US Mideast policy and gave the US president his marching orders.

Today, the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, on which I’ve been at sea, lies off the Mideast, ready to attack Iran.

The US and Israel have been trying to provoke wars with Iran since its 1979 Islamic revolution which ousted its US/Israeli run royal regime. Assassinations by the US of Iranian General Soleimani and the killing recently of top Iranian commanders in Lebanon and Tehran have brought Iran and Israel to the edge of war.

According to my information, the US and Israel plan to launch over 3,400 air strikes against Iranian targets that include all nuclear installations (shades of Chernobyl). Transport hubs, airfields and ports, naval and air units, military plants, missile bases, telecommunications, intelligence HQ’s, broadcasting, Revolutionary Guards HQ’s, police HQ’s.

Israel has long been itching to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and permanently cripple its nuclear programs. The US has supplied Israel with the special heavy bombs, targeting info, and long-range aircraft for this job. In addition, Israel also has German submarines carrying missiles armed with nuclear warheads that can strike every Mideast capital.

Behind all the hyped-up drama of Israel v. Iran lies the fact that Iran has, so far, no way to effectively attack Israel. Its last barrage of missiles and drones proved about as dangerous and ineffective as throwing rocks. Iran has been under an intensive US arms and equipment embargo since 1979. Similar sanctions on Iraq resulted in it being unable to replace warped tank gun barrels in 2003 that could not shoot straight.

Israel’s attacks and assassinations have left Iran in a difficult position. It cannot really do major damage to Israel but, if it attacks, will suffer catastrophic damage itself. So long as neither side uses nuclear weapons, that is.

Another ugly possibility is that either side may revert to a plan considered by Egypt back in the late 1950’s: packing missile warheads with radioactive waste to counter Israeli threats to drop a nuclear weapon on Egypt’s huge Aswan Dam, an act that would have flooded the entire Nile Valley, including Cairo.

An Iranian attack on Israel will have little strategic efficacy. Prime targets in Israel for Iran would be Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa port, Tel Nof and other airbases and the Weizman Science complex. Only the airfields and Israel’s dimona reactor would be strategic targets, and perhaps Israel’s vulnerable electricity grid.

But Iran must keep its militant stance lest the current Tehran regime be discredited and even overthrown. This means more pinprick attacks and military parades in Tehran showing off high-tech weapons that barely work, if at all.

It is very unlikely Israel will invade Iran using ground operations. Iran is too big, too populous and too proven in war against Iraq. Gaza was too much of a public relations disaster for Israel. Iran could do little beyond commando raids across the border. The rest of the Muslim world has done nothing as it watches the starvation or wounding of over 90,000 Palestinians (half children) and the deaths of 40,000.

An Iranian militant once told me in Tehran, “we welcome an American invasion. They will break their teeth on Iran just as they did in Iraq and Afghanistan”.

Coauthor Hajro Çini